The Ancient Law

Economist Call Reflexivity

Economists call this reflexivity, and it means that the law is partly made of human expectation, which is why it has proven so much harder to pin down than the orbit of a planet. We are not merely subject to the circle; we are its fuel. Air may be the better metaphor for how it feels to live inside the law. We breathe without thinking, and we notice only when the supply is threatened. Most people never think about the chain of hands that produced their breakfast, the farmer, the trucker, the grocer, the banker who financed each of them, until a strike or a storm or a shortage reveals the chain. Then, suddenly, the invisible becomes urgent. So the honest answer is that the law is a little like gravity in its reach, a little like air in its invisibility, and unlike both in its dependence on us. It is a law of nature made out of human behavior, and that strange parentage is exactly why it remains elusive. What, then, has the law done to us since the beginning? It taught early humans to share, because the loop of favors kept them alive. It taught the first cities to cancel debts, because a stalled circle toppled kings. It built markets, banks, and trade routes, and it filled history with booms that tempted people into folly and busts that taught them, briefly, to be careful. It has shaped where we live, what we fear, and whom we trust, because at bottom the circle is a record of how much human beings depend on one another. The practical lessons are modest and durable. Save in the fat years, as Joseph advised, because the lean ones will come. Be suspicious of any story that says this time the cycle is over. Remember that one person’s thrift can be another’s ruin when everyone practices it at once, and that one person’s spending is another’s livelihood. Keep debt within reach of repayment, and trust the little wheels of commerce, the baker and the carpenter and the grocer, because they are the circle in miniature. Somewhere, in a valley that never existed, Mira the beekeeper is carrying a jar of honey to Tobun’s door. The drought rumor has faded, the barley has come in, and the circle has begun to turn again. She does not know the names of Quesnay or Kondratiev, and she does not need to. She only knows that what she gives returns to her in some other form, and that the whole valley is stronger because it does. That stubborn insight, repeated across thousand years and billions of lives, “The Ancient Law of Economic Circles”–it’s like air we breath.

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